Over the past few days, we have been receiving an increasing number of inquiries about how the current geopolitical situation is specifically affecting the real estate market in Dubai. Accordingly, we would like to provide a brief, personal update (March 19, 2026) from our perspective.
Despite the current tensions, the situation on the ground remains stable and orderly. Public life is proceeding largely as normal; stores, hotels, and restaurants are open, and air travel is currently operating as usual, albeit with a few minor adjustments.
At the same time, it is clear that future developments remain difficult to predict and will depend heavily on how the geopolitical situation unfolds in the coming weeks.
What we do see very clearly, however, is that the fundamentals of the real estate market in Dubai remain sound. In recent weeks, approximately 15,000 transactions with a total value of over 50 billion AED were recorded. This shows that the market remains active and that real estate activity in Dubai is continuing largely as normal.
Nevertheless, a change is noticeable. The market continues to move, but in a more selective manner. Some investors are acting more cautiously or postponing decisions. In our view, this is due less to fundamental weaknesses and more to short-term uncertainty.
It is also interesting to note in this context that we are already receiving the first concrete inquiries from buyers regarding distressed deals.
This clearly demonstrates that long-term confidence in Dubai remains strong. Capital is available and actively seeking out opportunities, particularly during market phases marked by heightened uncertainty.
In the short term, a certain slowdown in momentum cannot be ruled out. Whether this is a temporary phase or the beginning of a more pronounced divergence remains to be seen.
In the current environment, the secondary market remains stable and serves as a guide for many investors. In the off-plan sector, however, conditions are likely to become more challenging. Here, we expect fewer price adjustments and, instead, more attractive and flexible payment plans from developers.
The rental market also presents a mixed picture. Long-term rentals remain stable and continue to be driven largely by expats. Short-term rentals, on the other hand, are reacting much more sensitively. The first signs of higher vacancy rates are becoming apparent, and demand has noticeably declined. If the uncertainty persists, this trend is likely to continue.
It is precisely during such periods that the importance of a clear, long-term investment strategy becomes apparent. Location, developer quality, and a realistic investment horizon take on even greater importance. A selective approach is currently essential.
In summary:
The fundamentals remain stable, the market is functioning, but it is reacting more sensitively. Caution is warranted in the short term, but in the long term, we believe Dubai remains a very attractive market.
Dubai has proven time and again in the past that the city is resilient even during periods of global uncertainty and, in some cases, even becomes more attractive. It remains to be seen whether this pattern will hold true once again.
We continue to monitor the market very closely and will be happy to keep you updated.